I woke up the other morning, opened my email, and saw the announcement. Black Friday Week starting November twentieth. Not Black Friday itself, but a whole week. 

When I was younger, Black Friday meant camping in a Best Buy parking lot the night before, waiting with a group of strangers. It was hectic, kind of fun, and definitely stressful. Now the rush is people scrolling through their phones in sweatpants while their coffee goes cold.

But these last few years feel different. Not because deals start earlier, but because everyone I know is a little more cautious, and a lot more aware of their spending. People in their late twenties to late thirties are budgeting more carefully. Planning earlier. Being picky in a way that feels less like preference and more like survival.

I wanted to see if the data backed up what I kept hearing in conversations, so I looked at projections from Reuters. Turns out online holiday sales are expected to rise only 5.3 percent this year, which is noticeably slower than last year. Reuters said economic uncertainty is making shoppers think harder before buying. It also pointed out a few other interesting details. Mobile shopping is expected to drive over half of all online spending. And BNPL is projected to jump by another two billion dollars because people are spreading payments out just to make purchases feel manageable.

That part resonated with me. I knew people were using BNPL more, but I did not realize how normal it had become. A friend told me she uses it only for bigger items. Someone else told me it is the only way she can buy gifts for her whole family without blowing up her checking account. It all makes sense, but it also shows where we are financially as a generation.

Then I read the new forecast from Adobe Analytics, and it painted an even clearer picture. They expect holiday spending to reach $253.4 billion this season. That number is huge, but the details are the real story. Mobile is projected to hit a record 56.1 percent of online spending. BNPL is expected to hit roughly $20 billion for the season. Cyber Monday alone is expected to cross one billion dollars of BNPL purchases in a single day.

To me, that says a lot. People want convenience and flexibility. People want more control in a holiday season that used to feel fun and now mostly feels expensive.

I felt that shift a few days ago at a coffee shop. A couple near me was talking about what purchases they were going to make on Cyber Monday. It sounded more like a strategy meeting than holiday planning.

And honestly, I get it. Life is expensive. Groceries eat up a good chunk of every paycheck. Rent makes you sweat. Even filling up the car feels heavier than it used to. Big seasonal shopping moments like Black Friday used to be fun. Now you feel pressure to maximize every dollar because everything around you costs more.

This is why I think Black Friday Week feels different this year. Not because brands start pushing deals earlier, but because they know how cautious people are. They know that people in their twenties and thirties are planning ahead. They know shoppers are price tracking, waiting for the right moment, using coupon extensions, delaying big purchases, and balancing debt more carefully than ever.

What surprised me in the Adobe report was that people are trading up to higher value items in categories like electronics and sporting goods. Not necessarily spending more, but being smarter about what they buy. If they are going to spend money, they want it to matter. No more random impulse gadgets. No more “I bought this because it was cheap.” People want value.

I realized I do the same thing without thinking. I make a list of what I actually need. I keep tabs on the prices a few weeks before. I check if it is a real discount or a fake one. I compare sizes. I compare warranties. I check whether it ships before the holidays or after New Year’s. It is a whole mental game.

But I also think the convenience of online shopping has changed how we approach this season. Standing in line at dawn sounds like a nightmare now. Shopping from my couch at ten at night is peaceful. And knowing that mobile spending will make up more than half of all online purchases makes perfect sense. Our phones are basically our shopping mall.

All of this made me realize something simple. Black Friday this year is not about chaos. It is about control. It is about stretching a dollar. It is about finding value. It is about making sure you do not walk into January with regret over money you wish you had back.

And because BNPL use is rising so quickly, it is worth knowing the risks too. I wrote a whole piece breaking down the downsides that most people overlook. If you plan to use those payment plans this season, it is worth reading The Buy Now Pay Later Trap No One Warns You About before you click on that four installment option.

This year, holiday shopping is less about scoring a deal and more about staying steady. And honestly, I think that shift says a lot about where we are right now.